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» Discussion Forums » Reading Topic
» Girls Soccer Forums » 00-01 / U10 Girls » GU11 (Aug 02 to Jul 01) strength ratings << Older
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LastPlanet January 16th, 2013 03:51 GMT Print this post
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Post: #53295
PT: #1/27



Hi,

I thought I'd post a link here to some west coast GU11 (Aug 02 to Jul 01) ranking work that 2 folks in Washington have been doing (one is me, a statistician, and the other is the person who assembled all the data).  It might be of interest here since the ranking includes 450+ California G01 teams based on a database of 7000 or so games and algorithm based on estimated attack and defense strengths using goal differentials in games.   It's based on an analysis of all the team's games (at least all we have) since spring team formation (spring 2012).  

Here's a link to the full ranking table:
https://dl.dropbox.com/s/ywcun8bggrtp0mo/All-CA-G01-ranks.html

Here's a link to the blog where you'll find the full west coast G01 ranks and the G01 match dataset, plus a description of the algorithm.
http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com

Here's the top 30 G01 CA strength estimates based on match data up to 1/4/2013. See the link above for the full list (456 teams).
team total attack defense n.games fall.league
1 So Cal Blues Baker G01 6.43 21.34 28.95 21 SoCal DSL1
2 South Bay Force Quigs G01 5.24 12.32 15.25 25 SoCal DSL1
3 USA Stars G02 5.00 10.74 13.75 16
4 Fullerton Rangers White G01 4.97 11.85 12.20 31 SoCal CSL-Silver Elite
5 San Diego Surf SC White G01 4.87 12.08 10.79 33 SoCal DSL1
6 Arsenal FC G01 4.80 10.41 11.72 37 SoCal DSL1
7 Laguna Hills Eclipse White G01 4.65 13.01 8.07 16 SoCal DSL1
8 Eagles SC G01 4.56 8.49 11.31 38 SoCal CSL-Silver Elite
9 Legends FC G01 4.56 9.89 9.63 27 SoCal DSL1
10 Ajax United Elite G02 4.51 10.24 8.89 30 NorCal Gold U12
11 Mustang Legends G01 4.24 8.51 8.15 38 NorCal Premier
12 West Coast FC G01 4.23 8.23 8.34 28 SoCal DSL1
13 Santa Rosa United Earthquakes G01 4.06 5.52 10.54 25 NorCal Gold U12
14 Real So Cal White G01 3.85 7.89 5.93 21 SoCal DSL1
15 So Cal Blues Kale G01 3.84 6.09 7.66 32 SoCal DSL1
16 Carlsbad Lightning Red G01 3.77 9.18 4.70 31 Presidio AAA
18 FC Elk Grove Navy G02 3.72 7.37 5.58 36 NorCal Premier
19 Loomis YSC Storm G01 3.60 4.32 8.48 31 CalNorth CCSL-Silver Elite
20 Legends FC South G01 3.53 6.91 4.95 20 SoCal DSL1
21 Strikers FC Macias G01 3.49 5.07 6.48 27 SoCal DSL1
22 Canyon PSA Blue G01 3.43 7.59 4.08 26 SoCal DSL2
23 Hotspurs Premier G01 3.42 5.21 5.85 30 Presidio AAA
24 UC Premier Tops G01 3.36 5.40 5.31 36 NorCal Premier
25 West Coast FC United G01 3.31 5.93 4.63 28 SoCal DSL1
26 Eureka YS Shamrocks G02 3.30 2.82 9.63 29 CalNorth CCSL-Silver Elite
27 Davis Legacy Stampede G01 3.21 4.45 5.57 28 NorCal Premier
28 MVLA Avalanche Blue G01 3.19 6.25 3.88 27 NorCal Premier
29 Legends FC Corona Eastvale G01 3.10 4.52 4.89 21 SoCal DSL2
30 De Anza Force Blue G01 3.09 5.06 4.36 25 NorCal Premier


Here's a link to a comparison of league strengths across the west coast for G01s:


Cheers
LastPlanet
PM: LastPlanet
TVSoccer January 17th, 2013 17:12 GMT Print this post
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Post: #53314
PT: #2/27



Interesting, but one thing I noticed is the absence of a Mustang team (Xplosion, formerly Crunch).  I see our other D1 teams (Legends and Blast (formerly Impact), and all of our D3 teams (Pride, Angels, Blaze and Storm), but that is it.  Based on their games so far, the Xplosion will be somewhere in the top 24 in the final round of state cup.  Seems funny they are not on the list.
TVS
PM: TVSoccer
lunita January 17th, 2013 19:41 GMT Print this post
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Post: #53320
PT: #3/27




Quoted from: lunita, January 17th, 2013 19:37  GMT
It looks like there was also some (very understandable) confusion about Boca's Silver teams.  I think there were actually three Boca silver teams at this age group (?  Bravehearts, Natomas, and "S G", aka lowercase silver?).  The one listed highest (#190) is attributed with its own State Cup results plus the results of the one that was lowercase silver (which I think is the same as the one entered as "S G in league play??)

Clear as mud?

PM: lunita
loomisdad January 17th, 2013 19:46 GMT Print this post
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Post: #53321
PT: #4/27



WOW!  
I looked over your blog site.  Very interesting.  You guys must have a lot of free time!!!  

Thanks for the effort.


PM: loomisdad
20sDad January 17th, 2013 20:24 GMT Print this post
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Post: #53324
PT: #5/27



BCS?
PM: 20sDad
LastPlanet January 18th, 2013 01:02 GMT Print this post
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Post: #53329
PT: #6/27




Quoted from: TVSoccer, January 17th, 2013 17:12  GMT
Interesting, but one thing I noticed is the absence of a Mustang team (Xplosion, formerly Crunch).  I see our other D1 teams (Legends and Blast (formerly Impact), and all of our D3 teams (Pride, Angels, Blaze and Storm), but that is it.  Based on their games so far, the Xplosion will be somewhere in the top 24 in the final round of state cup.  Seems funny they are not on the list.


Ah, they were listed as a G02 team inadvertently so weren't showing up on the G01 page.  They have an estimated rating of 1.64 putting them in the middle of the other NorCal Gold teams in the database.
LastPlanet
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LastPlanet January 18th, 2013 01:42 GMT Print this post
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Post: #53331
PT: #7/27




Quoted from: lunita, January 17th, 2013 19:41  GMT

Quoted from: lunita, January 17th, 2013 19:37  GMT
It looks like there was also some (very understandable) confusion about Boca's Silver teams.  I think there were actually three Boca silver teams at this age group (?  Bravehearts, Natomas, and "S G", aka lowercase silver?).  The one listed highest (#190) is attributed with its own State Cup results plus the results of the one that was lowercase silver (which I think is the same as the one entered as "S G in league play??)

Clear as mud?


Ok, I think I have that one fixed.  "Silver" (as opposed to "silve") gets a bump now that the lower teams cup games aren't on it's list.

I also fixed the Mustang Xplosion wrong age group too.

Updated list here
http://lastplanetran.../ca-g01-ratings.html
LastPlanet
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LastPlanet January 18th, 2013 02:26 GMT Print this post
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Post: #53332
PT: #8/27




Quoted from: 20sDad, January 17th, 2013 20:24  GMT
BCS?

Well, only to the extent that BCS also uses statistical analysis.  'course it also uses polls...

This algorithm only uses the matches.  I have the reference on the algorithm on the blog in the About tab.  I wrote the code.  It doesn't have any special 'brownie points' for winning a tournament or for particular 'premier' tournaments or leagues.  It just uses who a team plays and how many goals scored and how allowed.  It does need cross-league mixing, meaning summer tournament and cup games where teams from different league meet.  But Washington, it's looking like the amount of mixing in the summer is enough to get good rankings that can predict tournaments (like state cup performances).  Whether that's true for CA remains to be seen.  CA is much bigger than WA and has many more teams.  That said, the CA leagues tend to fall out in the right order (gold above silver above bronze, etc) and the top 10 that popped out of the analysis show up on many top lists.
LastPlanet
PM: LastPlanet
TJSoccer January 18th, 2013 16:21 GMT Print this post
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Replies: 226
Post: #53336
PT: #9/27



This deserves a Bud Light "Real Men of Genius" salute!  "We salute you, mr. amateur statistician youth soccer rankerer."

Can I use this to establish a money line on the U12G preseason tourneys?

Great stuff.  Thanks for sharing.
PM: TJSoccer
mtnlady January 18th, 2013 16:49 GMT Print this post
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Post: #53338
PT: #10/27



Love to see the same stats for the u13g soon to be u14g!
PM: mtnlady
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