| LastPlanet - January 16th, 2013 03:51 GMT |
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Hi,
I thought I'd post a link here to some west coast GU11 (Aug 02 to Jul 01) ranking work that 2 folks in Washington have been doing (one is me, a statistician, and the other is the person who assembled all the data). It might be of interest here since the ranking includes 450+ California G01 teams based on a database of 7000 or so games and algorithm based on estimated attack and defense strengths using goal differentials in games. It's based on an analysis of all the team's games (at least all we have) since spring team formation (spring 2012).
Here's a link to the full ranking table:
https://dl.dropbox.com/s/ywcun8bggrtp0mo/All-CA-G01-ranks.html
Here's a link to the blog where you'll find the full west coast G01 ranks and the G01 match dataset, plus a description of the algorithm.
http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com
Here's the top 30 G01 CA strength estimates based on match data up to 1/4/2013. See the link above for the full list (456 teams).
team total attack defense n.games fall.league
1 So Cal Blues Baker G01 6.43 21.34 28.95 21 SoCal DSL1
2 South Bay Force Quigs G01 5.24 12.32 15.25 25 SoCal DSL1
3 USA Stars G02 5.00 10.74 13.75 16
4 Fullerton Rangers White G01 4.97 11.85 12.20 31 SoCal CSL-Silver Elite
5 San Diego Surf SC White G01 4.87 12.08 10.79 33 SoCal DSL1
6 Arsenal FC G01 4.80 10.41 11.72 37 SoCal DSL1
7 Laguna Hills Eclipse White G01 4.65 13.01 8.07 16 SoCal DSL1
8 Eagles SC G01 4.56 8.49 11.31 38 SoCal CSL-Silver Elite
9 Legends FC G01 4.56 9.89 9.63 27 SoCal DSL1
10 Ajax United Elite G02 4.51 10.24 8.89 30 NorCal Gold U12
11 Mustang Legends G01 4.24 8.51 8.15 38 NorCal Premier
12 West Coast FC G01 4.23 8.23 8.34 28 SoCal DSL1
13 Santa Rosa United Earthquakes G01 4.06 5.52 10.54 25 NorCal Gold U12
14 Real So Cal White G01 3.85 7.89 5.93 21 SoCal DSL1
15 So Cal Blues Kale G01 3.84 6.09 7.66 32 SoCal DSL1
16 Carlsbad Lightning Red G01 3.77 9.18 4.70 31 Presidio AAA
18 FC Elk Grove Navy G02 3.72 7.37 5.58 36 NorCal Premier
19 Loomis YSC Storm G01 3.60 4.32 8.48 31 CalNorth CCSL-Silver Elite
20 Legends FC South G01 3.53 6.91 4.95 20 SoCal DSL1
21 Strikers FC Macias G01 3.49 5.07 6.48 27 SoCal DSL1
22 Canyon PSA Blue G01 3.43 7.59 4.08 26 SoCal DSL2
23 Hotspurs Premier G01 3.42 5.21 5.85 30 Presidio AAA
24 UC Premier Tops G01 3.36 5.40 5.31 36 NorCal Premier
25 West Coast FC United G01 3.31 5.93 4.63 28 SoCal DSL1
26 Eureka YS Shamrocks G02 3.30 2.82 9.63 29 CalNorth CCSL-Silver Elite
27 Davis Legacy Stampede G01 3.21 4.45 5.57 28 NorCal Premier
28 MVLA Avalanche Blue G01 3.19 6.25 3.88 27 NorCal Premier
29 Legends FC Corona Eastvale G01 3.10 4.52 4.89 21 SoCal DSL2
30 De Anza Force Blue G01 3.09 5.06 4.36 25 NorCal Premier
Here's a link to a comparison of league strengths across the west coast for G01s:
Cheers
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| TVSoccer - January 17th, 2013 17:12 GMT |
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Interesting, but one thing I noticed is the absence of a Mustang team (Xplosion, formerly Crunch). I see our other D1 teams (Legends and Blast (formerly Impact), and all of our D3 teams (Pride, Angels, Blaze and Storm), but that is it. Based on their games so far, the Xplosion will be somewhere in the top 24 in the final round of state cup. Seems funny they are not on the list.
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| lunita - January 17th, 2013 19:41 GMT |
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------ QUOTE from lunita, January 17th, 2013 19:37 GMT ------
It looks like there was also some (very understandable) confusion about Boca's Silver teams. I think there were actually three Boca silver teams at this age group (? Bravehearts, Natomas, and "S G", aka lowercase silver?). The one listed highest (#190) is attributed with its own State Cup results plus the results of the one that was lowercase silver (which I think is the same as the one entered as "S G in league play??)
Clear as mud?
------ QUOTE END ------
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| loomisdad - January 17th, 2013 19:46 GMT |
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WOW!
I looked over your blog site. Very interesting. You guys must have a lot of free time!!!
Thanks for the effort.
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| 20sDad - January 17th, 2013 20:24 GMT |
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| LastPlanet - January 18th, 2013 01:02 GMT |
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------ QUOTE from TVSoccer, January 17th, 2013 17:12 GMT ------
Interesting, but one thing I noticed is the absence of a Mustang team (Xplosion, formerly Crunch). I see our other D1 teams (Legends and Blast (formerly Impact), and all of our D3 teams (Pride, Angels, Blaze and Storm), but that is it. Based on their games so far, the Xplosion will be somewhere in the top 24 in the final round of state cup. Seems funny they are not on the list.
------ QUOTE END ------
Ah, they were listed as a G02 team inadvertently so weren't showing up on the G01 page. They have an estimated rating of 1.64 putting them in the middle of the other NorCal Gold teams in the database.
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| LastPlanet - January 18th, 2013 01:42 GMT |
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------ QUOTE from lunita, January 17th, 2013 19:41 GMT ------
------ QUOTE from lunita, January 17th, 2013 19:37 GMT ------
It looks like there was also some (very understandable) confusion about Boca's Silver teams. I think there were actually three Boca silver teams at this age group (? Bravehearts, Natomas, and "S G", aka lowercase silver?). The one listed highest (#190) is attributed with its own State Cup results plus the results of the one that was lowercase silver (which I think is the same as the one entered as "S G in league play??)
Clear as mud?
------ QUOTE END ------
------ QUOTE END ------
Ok, I think I have that one fixed. "Silver" (as opposed to "silve") gets a bump now that the lower teams cup games aren't on it's list.
I also fixed the Mustang Xplosion wrong age group too.
Updated list here
http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com/2012/12/ca-g01-ratings.html (http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com/2012/12/ca-g01-ratings.html)
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| LastPlanet - January 18th, 2013 02:26 GMT |
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------ QUOTE from 20sDad, January 17th, 2013 20:24 GMT ------
BCS?
------ QUOTE END ------
Well, only to the extent that BCS also uses statistical analysis. 'course it also uses polls...
This algorithm only uses the matches. I have the reference on the algorithm on the blog in the About tab. I wrote the code. It doesn't have any special 'brownie points' for winning a tournament or for particular 'premier' tournaments or leagues. It just uses who a team plays and how many goals scored and how allowed. It does need cross-league mixing, meaning summer tournament and cup games where teams from different league meet. But Washington, it's looking like the amount of mixing in the summer is enough to get good rankings that can predict tournaments (like state cup performances). Whether that's true for CA remains to be seen. CA is much bigger than WA and has many more teams. That said, the CA leagues tend to fall out in the right order (gold above silver above bronze, etc) and the top 10 that popped out of the analysis show up on many top lists.
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| TJSoccer - January 18th, 2013 16:21 GMT |
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This deserves a Bud Light "Real Men of Genius" salute! "We salute you, mr. amateur statistician youth soccer rankerer."
Can I use this to establish a money line on the U12G preseason tourneys?
Great stuff. Thanks for sharing.
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| mtnlady - January 18th, 2013 16:49 GMT |
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Love to see the same stats for the u13g soon to be u14g!
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| LastPlanet - January 18th, 2013 17:45 GMT |
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------ QUOTE from mtnlady, January 18th, 2013 16:49 GMT ------
Love to see the same stats for the u13g soon to be u14g!
------ QUOTE END ------
It's easy (LOL). All you have to do is create a G13 match file like "G11 Game Results.csv" and "G11_Teams.csv" here
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/yqkxhnzcz7eto5j/FrSKDe86yG (https://www.dropbox.com/sh/yqkxhnzcz7eto5j/FrSKDe86yG)
I did not assemble the match data (I do B00, B99, B98 in WA/OR and do the stats). A truly dedicated (insane?) parent in WA assembled the west coast G01 match data out of curiosity of how WA teams rank against CA teams (not so hot). The hard part is not entering the matches. Those can mostly be done by computer via webscraping. The truly mind-numbing part is matching up team names. Some teams use like 10 different names in different tournaments. It's as if teams were trying to play incognito.
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| PREMIER02G - January 21st, 2013 23:44 GMT |
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| LastPlanet - February 04th, 2013 22:43 GMT |
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February west coast G01 ranks based on updated data have been posted.
http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com/p/g01.html (http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com/p/g01.html)
If you go to the "Individual Team Analyses" on that page, you'll see pdfs for each team with how they performed relative to expected for each game (page 1) and then on page 2 all the games in All for One's database on that team. 'Match data' is the whole G01 match database (this is what goes into the analysis).
If you see a tournament that is missing (it's hard to keep track of all of them in CA since we are in WA), you can email me the missing tournament data tolastplanetranking@gmail.com . Check out the format for entering matches in an Excel file:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/nnp6grerrveyypc/scores-web.csv (https://www.dropbox.com/s/nnp6grerrveyypc/scores-web.csv)
or send a link to the tournament (if it is hosted by Demosphere or GotSport, which can be scraped).
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| Aby N - February 12th, 2013 19:59 GMT |
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Amazing work by all!
State cup results for presidents bracket Q were 100% accurate with finishing positions.
Any idea if the parent will be projecting the first few leg's for the remaining portion of the tourney?
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| futballinator - February 13th, 2013 05:48 GMT |
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------ QUOTE from LastPlanet, February 04th, 2013 22:43 GMT ------
February west coast G01 ranks based on updated data have been posted.
http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com/p/g01.html (http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com/p/g01.html)
If you go to the "Individual Team Analyses" on that page, you'll see pdfs for each team with how they performed relative to expected for each game (page 1) and then on page 2 all the games in All for One's database on that team. 'Match data' is the whole G01 match database (this is what goes into the analysis).
If you see a tournament that is missing (it's hard to keep track of all of them in CA since we are in WA), you can email me the missing tournament data tolastplanetranking@gmail.com . Check out the format for entering matches in an Excel file:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/nnp6grerrveyypc/scores-web.csv (https://www.dropbox.com/s/nnp6grerrveyypc/scores-web.csv)
or send a link to the tournament (if it is hosted by Demosphere or GotSport, which can be scraped).
------ QUOTE END ------
Based on this eliminating So Cal teams:
predicted vs final
1. USA Stars n/a
2. Ajax Elite 1st
3. Mustang Legends 9th
4. SRU Earthquakes, 3rd
5. Loomis Storm, 5th
6. MVLA Blue, 2nd
7. Rage Orange, 4th
8. FC Elk Grove Navy, 13th
9. Los Gatos Black, 10th
10. Davis Stampede, 11th
11. Force Blue, 6th
12. UC Tops, 7th
13. Eureka Shamrocks, 33rd
14. San Juan Blue, 8th
15. Cal Odyssey Red, 19th
16. ACC Mavericks Dynamite, 12th
17. San Ramon Azuri, 21-24
18. Gryphons Red, 15th
19. Ajax Premier, 17th
20. CASA BOCA 01 (original BOCA), 36-39th
21. Mustang Blast, 14th
Or course there is inherent accuracy based on using actual match data--which looks like it went through 2/4/13, but pretty nice modeling.
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| LastPlanet - March 17th, 2013 04:07 GMT |
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Edited by LastPlanet on March 17th, 2013 04:07 GMT
I have a big update to the G01 ratings posted. Ratings now cover UT, AZ, NV, ID, WA, OR and CA. New individual team analyses are also posted so you can look at how teams did compared to expected performance and see all of a team's games that are in the database. Here's the top-30 CAN teams (according to this particular algorithm). The full list of all CAN (and CAS) teams can be found here: http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com/p/g01.html (http://lastplanetranking.blogspot.com/p/g01.html) Sorry, I didn't have time to post predictions for the NorCal state cups like I did for the SoCal Presidents cup, but good to see the ranking seemed to match up fairly well with the state cup finishes.
1 USA Stars 02 A G01 8.39 16.17 20.70 16
2 Ajax United 02 Elite G01 7.90 18.26 13.13 44 NorCal Gold U12
3 Mustang Legends G01 7.39 15.48 10.87 47 NorCal Premier
4 Santa Rosa United Earthquakes G01 7.04 8.89 14.76 29 NorCal Gold U12
6 Loomis YSC Storm G01 6.40 6.99 12.04 36 CalNorth CCSL-Silver Elite
7 MVLA Avalanche Blue G01 6.26 10.32 7.43 32 NorCal Premier
8 FC Elk Grove 02 Navy G01 6.09 11.39 5.97 45 NorCal Premier
9 De Anza Force Blue G01 5.97 8.11 7.73 30 NorCal Premier
10 Davis Legacy Stampede G01 5.96 9.48 6.59 33 NorCal Premier
11 UC Premier Tops G01 5.91 9.04 6.65 41 NorCal Premier
12 Pleasanton Rage Orange G01 5.89 9.13 6.48 33 NorCal Premier
13 Los Gatos United Black G01 5.86 9.29 6.27 35 NorCal Premier
14 Eureka YS 02 Shamrocks G01 5.51 5.24 8.72 34 CalNorth CCSL-Silver Elite
15 Cal Odyssey SC Red G01 5.28 7.88 4.94 29 NorCal Premier
16 Diablo FC Xtreme G01 5.24 7.38 5.11 39 NorCal Premier
17 GSC Gryphons Red G01 5.16 7.77 4.62 30 NorCal Premier
18 San Juan SC 02 Spirits Blue G01 5.15 6.90 5.15 35 NorCal Premier
19 Ajax United 02 Premier G01 5.13 8.06 4.34 39 NorCal Gold
20 ACC Mavericks Dynamite G01 5.12 8.29 4.20 34 NorCal Premier
21 Mustang Blast G01 5.11 5.10 6.77 47 NorCal Premier
22 San Ramon 02 Azuri G01 5.09 6.37 5.35 32 NorCal Premier
23 CASA Boca G01 5.05 6.95 4.77 27 NorCal Premier
24 Sacramento United Extreme Red G01 4.88 6.42 4.60 28 NorCal Premier
25 SF Vikings Ravens Red G01 4.77 5.33 5.13 22 CalNorth CCSL-Gold
26 California Cougars G01 4.70 5.69 4.57 45 NorCal Premier
27 Livermore Fusion SC Maroon G01 4.55 5.59 4.18 33 NorCal Gold
28 Placer United 02 Red G01 4.50 4.84 4.68 32 NorCal Premier
29 Clovis JR SL 02 Crossfire Amazons G01 4.42 5.39 3.98 29 CalNorth CCSL-Silver
30 Peninsula Odyssey Blue G01 4.31 3.68 5.40 21 NorCal Premier
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| TVSoccer - March 21st, 2013 07:10 GMT |
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Thanks for putting this together, LastPlanet. Statistical Analysis is always interesting. I had to look hard for Mustang's 3rd team (Xplosion), which is down at 149 overall and what looks to be in the 60's for NorCal teams, which is where it belongs, statistically. However, that team finished in 16th at the NorCal state Cup, based on both a little bit of luck and a lot of heart. Hard to adjust statistical analysis for the "bunch of 10 year olds on the field on any given day" factor, which affected both the Legends and the Xplosion at state cup.
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| 11RoCks - April 10th, 2013 03:14 GMT |
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GRYPHONS SC 98/99/00 Girls ( and 03 Boys) have OPEN tryouts, if you want to learn from a great coach, contact Coach Ricardo via email and come to a few practices to see if you like it. He is an outstanding coach, many of his players are ODP & PDP (STATE and Regional), ID2, NTC, or now play ECNL. Email him for more info.. RGNMarta23@aol.com
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